google ads forecast
How to see into the future...
Not Available On Mobile
Open on a Computer to Explore
PERFORMANCE FORECAST
Explore each section below to understand the performance forecast
DATA INPUT TABLE
How to Use:
1. Edit Monthly Ad Spend (Set at $3,000)
2. Edit Cost Per Lead (Set at $30)
3. Edit Number of Months (Set at 12)
4. Edit Close % of Hot Leads Talked to (Set at 15%)
5. Edit Average Property Price (Set at $1M)
6. Edit Average Commission % (Set at 2.5%)
Terms to Understand:
Invalid Leads are leads who signed up with invalid contact info or leads who are not interested or not qualified
Valid Leads are all the leads that aren’t invalid
Engaged Leads are leads we’ve made contact with
Hot Leads are leads looking to transact in the next 6 months
Show up % is the percent of Hot Leads that are serious & show up to their appointment
Hot Leads Talked to are hot leads that showed up to their appointment
Close % is the % of hot leads you talked to that end up converting into a deal
IMPORTANT NOTE
The estimates for Total Sales Volume, Deals Closed, Total GCI, Net Profit, & ROI are not measured within the initial time frame entered in the chart (12 months), but over an extended period of time (if fully realized at all)
This is because of the time delay between when a lead comes in & when they close
To accurately measure the full return here, we need to be thinking in years, not months
FORECAST CHART
The Chart will display a projection based on what you entered into the Data Input Table
**You have to input numbers for closed deals into the chart**
(The default on your chart is 1 closed deal per quarter)
Under the chart you will see a graph based on the closed deals data you entered
METRIC OVERVIEW
*Top of funnel metrics: Ad Spend, Cost per Lead, Valid Lead % & Engaged Lead %*
Your monthly ad spend is what feeds this entire system & is the starting point for success
Too little ad spend & you’ll struggle to get results
Decreasing your cost per lead (CPL) while your monthly ad spend remains the same will increase your lead flow
A high CPL is the ultimate bottleneck – amazing performance across all other metrics is irrelevant if leads aren’t flowing in
Increasing your valid lead % increases the number of leads you can engage
If your valid lead % drops, the effective cost per valid/potentially interested lead rises & vice versa
Increasing your engaged lead % gives more opportunity for hot leads to pop up
If your engaged lead % drops, the effective cost per engaged lead (someone you had a positive conversation with) rises & vice versa
*Bottom of funnel metrics: Hot Lead %, Show Up %, & Closing %*
Improving your Hot Lead % increases the number of interested/serious leads
Your hot lead % is is the biggest lever on your success – a high hot lead % fills up your pipeline
A higher Show up % ensures more leads begin the buying/selling process
When your show up % drops you are essentially decreasing your hot lead % & losing opportunities
Boosting your Closing % maximizes overall deal conversion
Your closing % is where you capitalize on all the prior work put into improving all of the above metrics
TAKEAWAY:
There are more ways to increase your opportunities & the amount of deals generated from your ad spend than you might think
Only tracking your closing percentage is like focusing solely on your wins & losses, but not touchdowns, receiving/rushing yards, pass completion %, fourth-down conversion %, interceptions, turnovers, etc. (the critical stats that actually determine the game’s outcome)
When you track every single metric leading up to your closing percentage, you know exactly what’s happening every step of the way
Tracking all of these metrics gives us a clearer picture of where to improve & how to forecast future results
EACH METRIC’S THROUGHPUT
*Let’s improve one metric at a time & see what the throughput is*
Select a metric below to explore
AD SPEND
10% Increase
Metric
Monthly Ad Spend:
Cost per Lead:
Valid Lead %:
Engagement % of valid leads:
Hot Lead % of engaged leads:
Show up %:
# of Months Advertising:
Total Ad Spend:
Total Leads:
Total Valid Leads:
Total Engaged Leads:
Total Hot Leads:
Total Hot Leads Talked to:
Close %:
Closed Deals:
Old
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
54
15%
8.05
New
$3,300
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$39,600
1,320
1,056
739
74
59
15%
8.85
Change
10%
–
–
–
–
–
–
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
–
10%
Takeaways
Increasing your ad spend scales your results linearly – put more in, get more out
If your monthly ad spend is too low your metrics become volatile because there just aren’t enough leads flowing in to have steady & predictable results
Increasing your ad spend is not a good idea if your other metrics are not performing well – it’s only going to scale the issues already present
Once all other metrics are performing well, we then look to increase ad spend to boost our already solid performance
Finding the right balanced budget during the first 6-12 months depends more on your cost per lead, but more on that next
COST PER LEAD
10% Decrease
Metric
Monthly Ad Spend:
Cost per Lead:
Valid Lead %:
Engagement % of valid leads:
Hot Lead % of engaged leads:
Show up %:
# of Months Advertising:
Total Ad Spend:
Total Leads:
Total Valid Leads:
Total Engaged Leads:
Total Hot Leads:
Total Hot Leads Talked to:
Close %:
Closed Deals:
Old
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
54
15%
8.05
New
$3,000
$27
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,333
1,066
746
74
59
15%
8.95
Change
–
-10%
–
–
–
–
–
–
11%
11%
11%
10%
10%
–
11%
Takeaways
Decreasing your CPL produces linear increases across the board (similarly to increasing ad spend) – more leads with the same ad spend
We obviously want our CPL to be as low as possible, but not at the expense of our other metrics
Decreasing your CPL is often seen as the best way to improve your results, but if your other metrics are not performing well then the decrease in CPL quickly cancels itself out
In some cases, increasing your CPL can even produce better results if you’re increasing your lead quality
Examples of this would be targeting a more specific area or targeting people only looking at properties at high price points – these leads would be more likely to engage & as a result, more would be seriously looking
VALID LEAD %
10% Increase
Metric
Monthly Ad Spend:
Cost per Lead:
Valid Lead %:
Engagement % of valid leads:
Hot Lead % of engaged leads:
Show up %:
# of Months Advertising:
Total Ad Spend:
Total Leads:
Total Valid Leads:
Total Engaged Leads:
Total Hot Leads:
Total Hot Leads Talked to:
Close %:
Closed Deals:
Old
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
54
15%
8.05
New
$3,000
$30
90%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
1,080
756
76
60
15%
9.05
Change
–
–
10%
–
–
–
–
–
–
13%
13%
13%
11%
–
12%
Takeaways
Increasing your valid lead % leaves you with more valid leads (people you can contact)
Increasing your valid lead % has a greater throughput compared to decreasing your CPL or increasing your ad spend the same percentage amount
Increasing this metric is very impactful & is often overlooked when determining where to improve
A low valid lead % indicates that your ad targeting is messed up
After all, you can have low a CPL, but that doesn’t matter if you can’t contact your leads
ENGAGEMENT % OF VALID LEADS
10% Increase
Metric
Monthly Ad Spend:
Cost per Lead:
Valid Lead %:
Engagement % of valid leads:
Hot Lead % of engaged leads:
Show up %:
# of Months Advertising:
Total Ad Spend:
Total Leads:
Total Valid Leads:
Total Engaged Leads:
Total Hot Leads:
Total Hot Leads Talked to:
Close %:
Closed Deals:
Old
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
54
15%
8.05
New
$3,000
$30
80%
80%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
768
77
61
15%
9.2
Change
–
–
–
10%
–
–
–
–
–
–
14%
15%
11%
–
14%
Takeaways
Most of the time, increasing your engagement % comes down to improving your call/text/email messaging & scripts to better resonate with your leads
Increasing your engagement % means more positive conversations with your leads & as a result, more opportunities
Increasing your engagement % has a greater throughput compared to decreasing your CPL, increasing your ad spend, & increasing your valid lead % the same percentage amount
Increasing this metric increases your hot leads without having to improve your hot lead %
It is much easier to increase your engagement % than it is to increase your hot lead %
HOT LEAD % OF ENGAGED LEADS
10% Increase
Metric
Monthly Ad Spend:
Cost per Lead:
Valid Lead %:
Engagement % of valid leads:
Hot Lead % of engaged leads:
Show up %:
# of Months Advertising:
Total Ad Spend:
Total Leads:
Total Valid Leads:
Total Engaged Leads:
Total Hot Leads:
Total Hot Leads Talked to:
Close %:
Closed Deals:
Old
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
54
15%
8.05
New
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
20%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
134
108
15%
16.1
Change
–
–
–
–
10%
–
–
–
–
–
–
100%
100%
–
100%
Takeaways
This metric doubles your throughput & has the greatest effect on your bottom line – even greater than your closing %
Your hot lead % is the highest leverage metric you have when trying to increase opportunities & fill your pipeline
Increasing your hot lead % by 10%, boosts your number of hot leads by 100%, & increases your closed deals by 100%
(assuming your close % remains constant)
However, your hot lead % will be volatile, as seasons, economics & other factors are at play when it comes to somebody being ready to buy/sell in the next 6 months
SHOW UP %
10% Increase
Metric
Monthly Ad Spend:
Cost per Lead:
Valid Lead %:
Engagement % of valid leads:
Hot Lead % of engaged leads:
Show up %:
# of Months Advertising:
Total Ad Spend:
Total Leads:
Total Valid Leads:
Total Engaged Leads:
Total Hot Leads:
Total Hot Leads Talked to:
Close %:
Closed Deals:
Old
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
54
15%
8.05
New
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
90%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
60
15%
9.05
Change
–
–
–
–
–
10%
–
–
–
–
–
–
11%
–
12%
Takeaways
The #1 way to increase your show up % is by being more selective about whether a lead is hot or not yet
Increasing your show up % ensures less hot leads slip through the cracks & more make it to the beginning of the buying/selling process
As seen from the table to the right, the impact is marginal compared to the impact your hot lead % has
When your show up % is already relatively high, focusing on improving other metrics can have greater returns on your bottom line
CLOSE % OF HOT LEADS TALKED TO
10% Increase
Metric
Monthly Ad Spend:
Cost per Lead:
Valid Lead %:
Engagement % of valid leads:
Hot Lead % of engaged leads:
Show up %:
# of Months Advertising:
Total Ad Spend:
Total Leads:
Total Valid Leads:
Total Engaged Leads:
Total Hot Leads:
Total Hot Leads Talked to:
Close %:
Closed Deals:
Old
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
54
15%
8.05
New
$3,000
$30
80%
70%
10%
80%
12
$36,000
1,200
960
672
67
54
25%
13.4
Change
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
10%
66%
Takeaways
Increasing your close % allows you to grow your bottom line without focusing on any other metrics
However, increasing your hot lead % by 10% has a greater impact on closings than increasing your closing % by the same amount
This metric is straightforward & is more impacted by the agent’s ability rather than the actual ads & their related metrics
Just like your hot lead %, your closing % is also volatile, as seasons, economics & other factors are at play
More opportunities > Higher closing %
FINAL TAKEAWAY:
Every metric above has its own unique impact & our goal is to stack as many of these metric improvements as possible to get outsized returns
Improving these individual metrics is what improves our overall close %
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